Price forecast for China's steel market in 2024

According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 8.005 million tons of steel in November, a year-on-year increase of 43.2%, continuing the high growth in October; From January to November, China exported a total of 82.658 million tons of steel, an increase of 35.6% year-on-year.

In terms of the proportion of export volume, the proportion of steel exports to the total domestic production from January to October this year was about 6.6%, which is higher than the 5% level of the whole year last year. The latest export scheduling of steel mills shows that the export scheduling in December still performed well, with a slight increase compared to the previous month. The annual steel exports are expected to exceed 90 million tons.

The probability of a decrease in raw material supply before and after next year's Spring Festival is relatively small. The logic of steel mills replenishing inventory during the Spring Festival under low inventory is positive for market sentiment, and steel prices may strengthen until late March and early April. The steel market for the whole year is expected to exhibit a characteristic of supply at the top and demand at the bottom. The pattern of oversupply in the market remains unchanged, and prices are expected to show an N-shaped trend in the game between macro expectations and fundamental reality